Lynkfox's Note:
Originally posted by u/unfit_ibis on reddit in r/Eve on early May 10th 2024 (war was still ongoing) here
Wormhole War, Part II: SYNDE Supreme Question Mark
Tldr: The first two weeks of the Wormhole War appear to go exceptionally well for the SYNDE Coalition. There are also reasons for real concern. How concerned? It's complicated.
When I wrote the first chapter of this review, I tried to focus on what I knew to be true given the natural limitations of getting factual information during EVE conflicts. That initial post has proven very fruitful in terms of the people who have since reached out with correcting and clarifying information. In addition, there has been a veritable waterfall of recent leaks within the wormhole community both from SYNDE (pre-war discussions with HAWKS leadership leaked within their coalition) and from HK (internal SYNDE corp meetings and SYNDE coalition meetings leaked publicly).
Those sources must be carefully considered against other evidence like zKillboard (ty u/Squizz) and the invaluable Wormhole War spreadsheet maintained by u/lynkfox https://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/1c1r66c/real_state_of_the_wormhole_war/
All that being said, I think it’s right to say that we have considerably more insight into the how and the why of the pre- and early-war periods of the past few months.
I will try to cite sources and BRs where I am able while at the same time respecting the wishes of those who have offered insight in confidence. In any case, this post offers updates to my first part, and then an exploration of the initial couple of weeks of this conflict that is still raging violently in Wormhole space.
Part 1 – Wormhole War: History and Prelude Update:
u/Loroseco (HK leadership) provided additional context to the initial post which has since been confirmed by Synde internal leaks (pre-war demands from Hawks leadership). On March 24, immediately prior to severing their long-standing alliance with HAWKS, SYNDE asked HAWKS leadership for a large number of C6 farms. It is clear from the conversation that SYNDE expected a stern HAWKS rejection that would provide them with a casus belli for the war they were set to launch. That stratagem did not go as planned. HAWKS agreed to the SYNDE demands, and SYNDE – likely unable to stop their pre-planned momentum and with a huge coalition awaiting the signal to launch their complicated, multi-pronged attack – dismissed HAWKS acceptance and ended the alliance anyway. HAWKS structures were attacked minutes later across C5 and C6 space by SYNDE and members of their expansive coalition (TURBO, HC, ATRAX, DISI, SUGAR, FFEW, EXIT).
While there has been considerable spin around the true nature of the SYNDE motivations for the war, it seems clear it boils down to SYNDE wanting to become the pre-eminent power in high class wormhole space and being willing to violate a number of strong wormhole taboos to make that possible.
Cry Havoc and Let Slip the Dogs of War: Lazerhawks Burning
On March 24, the war began in earnest when SYNDE’s carefully assembled wormhole coalition began reinforcing a large number of HAWKS farms in both C5 and C6 space. Once those shields were reinforced, most of the attacking groups returned to their respective staging systems and “rage rolled” for more HAWKS farms. It appears that most Coalition groups were staging from their home holes (most often with a C5 static), but the larger Coalition members had staged from a C6 wormhole with a C6 static, permitting them to rage roll for HAWKS C6 farms. The Synde Coalition called this staging hole “Waffles” and it would become a significant system as the war progressed.
For the non-wormholers, “rage rolling” is when a group “rolls” a wormhole’s static wormhole repeatedly, generating connections to new holes in order to access the hole or holes you are seeking. (Outside of war, rage rolling is a common activity for pvp corps to generate pvp content, including ganking, skirmishes and honor brawls.) By rage rolling, SYNDE Coalition members were able to reinforce a large number of HAWKS farms, return to staging, roll, and then reinforce another. Again, it is very difficult to know with any precision since there is no EVE output for reinforced citadels unless they are actually killed, but it appears that the SYNDE Coalition was reinforcing double digit farms daily, and would continue to do so throughout this initial phase of the War.
The first farm to fall happened three days later, as TURBO took a HAWKS C5 farm. https://br.evetools.org/related/31002099/202403271900
That began a steady deluge, as HAWKS lost farm after farm, appearing to offer little in the way of resistance. On April 1st, the Initiative openly added their strength to the offensive. They took their first HAWKS C6 on Apri 4th along with a smattering of coalition support. https://br.evetools.org/br/66141ee6ddb48200112d7848
Through April 4th, or 10 days after the start of the war, HAWKS had lost 17 Astrahus’ and 13 Fortizars across nearly 20 high class farms now held by SYNDE and their coalition partners. SYNDE was well on their way to achieving their objectives.
SYNDE reached out to HAWKS leadership and offered surrender terms.
Given How This War is Going: The Ultimatum
As this has been leaked and confirmed by both parties to the War, I am offering the surrender terms verbatim:
Given how this war is going, this will be the only offer we give you:
> Settle, transfer every single c6 remaining to SYNDE and we'll spare your home and give an appropriate number of c6s so you're not entirely without farms, make an agreement on no log off traps/rage rolling c6s/bashing farms
> Or you can let it go to option 2:
> Continue fighting, lose the rest of c6 space, and see the entire coalition in your home. It might take us a month but it's clear we can do it.
> Let us know.
A similar ultimatum was issued by Philip II of Macedon to the Spartans in 338 BC. After laying waste to Athens and Thebes, Philip sent a messenger to Sparta with the following note: “If I capture your city, I will destroy you.” The Spartans responded in short order. It was a one word answer: “If”
(editors note from Lynkfox: Philip II was in fact, successful, and slaughterd the spartans.)
HAWKS responded similarly, only with a more modern version: “Get fucked”
There would be no negotiation with a group that backstabbed HAWKS and lied repeatedly, and for months. Honor and reputation are too heavily prized in this corner of EVE. The Wormhole War would be decided in space, not on Discord.
HAWKS Undercurrents of Resistance
There were many signs pointing towards the ultimatum’s explicit argument that a SYNDE Coalition victory was inevitable. HAWKS farms were falling at a remarkable rate. SYNDE boasted a wormhole coalition numbering 2-3 times the size of HAWKS and their allies. SYNDE now had the active support of the Initiative, giving them a massive well of support from the lone nullbloc with extensive wormhole experience and expertise.
Despite this, there were some troubling signs for SYNDE and their partners, undercurrents of resistance that hinted that their offensive campaign was not as unstoppable as it might seem.
Hard Knocks Reborn
This view might earn me criticism, but over EVE’s history, the “MVP” of all current and prior Wormhole Corps is Hard Knocks. In their heyday, they excelled across a wide spectrum of EVE competencies – PVP, PVE and all the metagaming that EVE is famous for (diplo, spycraft, third-party technical, etc).
Hard Knocks had effectively not existed for years. The day before the war began, zkillboard indicated that Hard Knocks had 1 active member. Most of their members had won EVE, with others joining other wormhole or nullsec groups.
Within days of SYNDE launching the Wormhole War, much of Hard Knocks leadership had resubbed. The sudden rebirth of Hard Knocks was not viewed as a major problem by SYNDE leadership, who noted in a coalition meeting that the worst-case was a scenario where HK might be able to put 30-50 pilots on grid – not a particularly troubling number. This would prove to be an appalling misjudgment as HK leveraged their considerable institutional wormhole knowledge, experience, relationships and assets in support of HAWKS.
ATRAX Eviction: The First Home Hole Eviction of the War
Within days of the SYNDE offensive campaign kicking off, one of their coalition members – ATRAX – had their home hole besieged. It appears that while HAWKS was reeling from the initial onslaught, a small number of hardcore HK/SL0W/CUYS/Voidlings/BBERG pilots targeted ATRAX’ C5 home hole. That group held hole control from ATRAX for days, preventing them from getting many of their members who had been supporting the SYNDE offensive back to their home to actively defend it. In a clinical eviction effort, the ATRAX home hole fell on March 31st, a week after the war began. https://br.evetools.org/br/660a0cfa4541b60012c1babc
At a practical level, this was crushing for ATRAX members. Whatever assets they had in their home hole were now forfeit, and many important toons were now stuck in that system in safelogged capitals. When a hole is being evicted, and defense is not possible, it is common practice in wormholes to put as much as you can inside a freighter-class ship or a capital ship and then safelog that ship. Recall that any ship in a person’s hangar will drop when that citadel is destroyed in a wormhole. This process of safelogging is much more challenging when your key toons are not in home at that time. The evictors are rumored to have looted a large number of ATRAX capitals from their destroyed citadel grids.
At a broader level, this was not a significant loss for SYNDE and their coalition. ATRAX was not one of the large groups in the SYNDE coalition – the major players are SYNDE, TURBO, HC and of course INIT. On top of that, ATRAX has proven quite resilient. Although a third of their members left ATRAX after the eviction, those who remained reset in Jita or elsewhere and continued to contribute earnestly to the SYNDE war effort.
This was likely a small blip on the SYNDE radar, and an acceptable loss to the coalition. They did not deviate from their focus on burning HAWKS farms, one after another.
HK Staging Defense: The First Brawl
As HK members continued to resub, they began assembling their group in a C6 wormhole with a C6 static, J115844. They were joined by Voidlings, a smaller wh pvp group that had been evicted by SYNDE and INIT prior to the start of the war. Voidlings was looking to regroup and had joined the HAWKS side in part to avenge their recent eviction.
It is likely that HK planned to use this C6 in the same way that SYNDE was using their C6 staging, as a good way to access the now-widely-contested C6 environment by rage rolling for targets C6 wormholes to attack or defend.
As HK was in the initial stages of getting J115844 set up as their main staging, SYNDE rolled in and reinforced their staging fortizar citadel. They returned days later to reinforce the armor timer. Still fragile at this early stage of the war, on April 4th HK sounded the alarm within the HAWKS-allied groups to please come help support their hull timer. Perhaps for the first time since the war began, HAWKS formed a heavy shield fleet, left their heavily fortified home hole and rushed to help defend the HK hole. HAWKS added 30 Nighthawks to the 30 Vultures that HK and Voidlings had on hand in that C6 staging.
With SYNDE rage rolling from their C6 staging seeking to connect to the HK hole, HK and HAWKS could only wait. With scouts in the SYNDE hole, they were well aware that SYNDE and TURBO had assembled a fleet in excess of 120 ships for that evening’s offensive actions.
With under an hour until the hull timer, SYNDE struck gold and rolled their C6 staging directly into the C6 HK staging. SYNDE immediately jumped Sabres through the HK hole and bubbled in order to prevent the HK/HAWKS fleet from rolling that hole. Both fleets began undocking, with the SYNDE/TURBO heavy armor fleet warping one by one to the hole as they undocked from their staging fortizar. HK/HAWKS instead warped their entire defense fleet to a tactical ping well off the hole given the bubbles blanketing it on their side. As part of the SYNDE fleet led by alliance leads Cyrus Kurush and Mark Resurrectus began jumping the hole, the HK FC Viktor Pvolman noticed that the bubble on the hole had expired, and he made the decision to suicide a rolling capital into the hole.
For the non-wormholers, when fleets in two systems are going to engage, the primary limiting factor is the mass limit of the connecting wormhole. In this case, it was a W237 wormhole, one that connects two C6 holes. That hole can accommodate 3.3b of ship mass (with a range of plus or minus 10%). This means that a fresh, unmassed hole could permit roughly 33 Megathron Navy Issues through it before it collapsed. A rolling carrier by itself is between 1-2B in mass depending on several factors, so if HK could get a rolling carrier through that hole, it would significantly limit the SYNDE/TURBO ability to send in their full fleet – one that was almost certainly a 3.3b fleet, as most wormhole groups carefully plan their combat fleets based on the mass of hole they plan to travel through.
The HK FC likely judged that his HK/HAWKS fleet would lose to the larger SYNDE fleet – which would then mean losing hole control, and subsequently the HK staging with its fort hull timer fast approaching. An HK pilot warped his rolling carrier to the hole just before a new bubble went up, permitting him to land right on the hole as the SYNDE/TURBO fleet continued flooding in. The carrier jumped, putting over 1B of mass on the connecting wormhole. What follows was a comedic series of events. Despite a heavy armor fleet landing all around it, that carrier was able to warp off the hole to a nearby combat site, landing at range. In the confusion, two rather expensive ships warped after the fleeing carrier directly to that combat site – where they promptly died to rats. https://kb.evetools.org/kill/116748195/ https://kb.evetools.org/kill/116748204/
The carrier pilot was informed that the wormhole remain unbubbled, so while the SYNDE ships were dying he aligned his carrier away from the combat site and back to the hole. He warped there into the middle of a number of SYNDE and TURBO ships, jumping immediately on landing and destroying that wormhole connection – leaving several SYNDE/TURBO ships unable to join the rest of the fleet in the HK staging brawl.
The carrier was promptly dispatched with violence by the SYNDE heavy armor fleet on the other side of the now-gone hole. https://kb.evetools.org/kill/116748176/
That would be the high point for SYNDE/TURBO, as the fight between the two fleets in the HK hole quickly turned into a rout. The short-range heavy armor fleet brought by SYNDE FC and Coalition lead Cyrus Kurush was unable to apply at all to the Nighthawks and Vultures who maintained range control throughout. Including the loss of the carrier, the HAWKS side lost 8b while the SYNDE side lost 65b. HK retained hole control, and their staging repaired. https://br.evetools.org/br/663ea2bbf68f7000119e6a92
It appears that many errors in planning and execution led to this outcome, but in the grand scheme of things, it seemed a minor almost irrelevant setback for SYNDE. They continued to burn HAWKS farms with abandon, untroubled by a “resurgent” HK that could only put 27 ships on grid to defend their staging.
Espionage and SYNDE State of the Coalition: April 7th
This SYNDE coalition meeting exactly two weeks into the Wormhole War marks a critical turning point in the broader campaign for two primary reasons: One, it likely marks the high point of SYNDE achievement and optimism, and two, the fact that I know about it at all is (or at least should be) a massive cause for long-term concern by the SYNDE coalition.
Spycraft and espionage are often important and impactful elements of major EVE events and wars, and the Wormhole War is no exception.
It has been shared with me that one contributing reason for the early successes of SYNDE coalition is that they had an effective spy who was well integrated into HAWKS. That spy had been sharing pings, fleet movements and farm defense plans with SYNDE leadership on a minute by minute basis. That permitted SYNDE to alert coalition allies anytime HAWKS quick response fleets that were trying to save farms were en route, giving SYNDE allies the ability to roll holes or disengage as appropriate. The existence of this spy has been confirmed to me by both sides – as was their discovery by HAWKS around this time when SYNDE’s sun was ascendant. It is unknown if SYNDE still has spies well placed in HAWKS or HK, but it is undeniable that this time period is a major inflection point in the Wormhole War.
As mentioned earlier, HK has a well-earned reputation for exceptionalism across a wide range of essential EVE skillsets, including espionage. As HK worked back into form, so too did that element. The past week or so has seen a flood of high level leaks of internal SYNDE coalition, corp and leadership comm recordings by members of HK’s leadership. Some have found their way to Reddit, most are being shared across a wide range of wormhole community channels. In fairness, I do not know if they are the result of HK espionage or coming from other members supporting HAWKS – but it is HK who is driving the leaks, so I can only really attribute them to their work. I would be happy to be corrected on this point should additional information emerge. A complete audio file of this coalition meeting is now freely available, and I’m sure someone will link it in the comments if it’s of interest.
In this April 7th coalition meeting, SYNDE lead Cyrus Kurush declared that the coalition is well on the way to their goal of removing HAWKS from C6 space. He openly discussed evicting Hawks from their home, and acknowledged the strength of the SYNDE Coalition’s Nullsec support.
He indicated that while a HAWKS home eviction had been considered, the coalition’s full weight would remain on destroying and taking HAWKS farms. It appears his rationale was an asset denial one. Cyrus Kurush argued that this was a war for resources, and that without farms, HAWKS would not be able to access the resources needed to sustain war.
He also explicitly acknowledged a key development in the War. In the first week of the war, HAWKS transferred “16-17 C6s” to NOVAC, one of the two large high class wh pvp groups (along with LUPUS) that had remained neutral thus far. In response, SYNDE informed NOVAC that they would need to pick a side soon and that SYNDE viewed those farms as part of the broader set of HAWKS C6 farms that were to be redistributed in their new Wormhole order. Unsurprisingly, this would soon have a significant impact on NOVAC’s outlook – though likely not the change that SYNDE had hoped for.
When asked about the recent fleet feed in HK’s staging, Cyrus Kurush declared that the coalition was adopting a Goon Nullsec mentality to fights: helldunk or blueballs. He feared that lost fights would enhance HAWKS morale and bolster their allies, so going forward coalition members were only to take fight where they “can absolutely destroy” HAWKS fleets.
Ironically, when he was asked about the covert side of the war, Cyrus Kurush claimed that whatever HAWKS and HK has in terms of spies and information, SYNDE has the same or better. I say irony because, again, I am only privy to this knowledge because of a recent HK leak.
Cyrus Kurush then stated that their cause was attracting more wormhole groups, sharing in confidence that Chiffas – a wormhole pvp group that often punches above their weight – was joining the SYNDE Coalition.
The very next day, Chiffas absolutely demolished a TURBO fleet. https://br.evetools.org/related/31002076/202404081900
They would not be joining the SYNDE Coalition after all.
The Nullsec Effect: Initiative and Goons Mobilizing
Perhaps the most impactful early-war development was the increasingly widespread awareness throughout the wormhole community about the close alliance between SYNDE and INIT. By this stage, INIT had been taking high class farms directly and now owned several other farms they had previously been renting from SYNDE – both C5s and C6s.
Spurred on by the chaos in high class wormhole space and the invitation by SYNDE to take their own slice of the spice fields, INIT and GOONS formed dedicated “wormhole eviction” SIGs – openly pinging out for member interest in their primary coalition comms channels. INIT and GOONS looked forwards to an environment where they could own their own spice fields instead of renting. That mobilization effort continues.
These developments sent shock waves through the wormhole community, shock waves which continue to reverberate to this day.
It is one thing to batphone a friendly nullbloc if you need help in a difficult situation – defending one’s home is generally viewed as a good reason to batphone anyone and everyone, for instance. Openly allying with a nullbloc in order to achieve objectives in wormhole space has been almost universally scorned by the wormhole community. As any wormhole history nerd could likely confirm, this has generally been viewed as clear casus belli for eviction, and one that is likely to rally widespread wormhole support. You can’t be a wormhole cartel that is allied with a kspace super power – it runs against the natural order of things.
Recent leaks have shown that as far back as Summer 2023, nine months before they ended their alliance with HAWKS, SYNDE leadership was negotiating with INIT about a potential eviction of HAWKS home.
SYNDE was betting that a desire for more and better farms would ensure continued allegiance by wormhole coalition partners despite this rather egregious and open violation of wormhole norms.
More to follow as we explore the two most important strategic developments in the war thus far – the eviction of Sugar, and the eviction of the SYNDE coalition staging. Those two events would cost the SYNDE coalition hundreds of members and well over 1t in assets. They would also be the first time in the war that a 300 pilot Init fleet arrived on grid…on a day when hundreds of billions would be destroyed.
(Full photography credit to u/Thorshammer667 for the C6 wormhole screenshot!)